Formula 1’s third weekend of 2024 is at Melbourne for the Australian GP. Since 2022, this circuit has completely changed its face, becoming a high-speed track rather than the technical and slow one it was pre-2020.
Overtaking is still difficult, as last season’s race demonstrated. Qualifying is important, especially considering the small gaps between teams in Formula 1.
As always, Red Bull are the favourites. The Australian GP is the first race heading into the Asian leg before the teams compete in Japan and China next month.
Max Verstappen could equal his own record of ten consecutive victories this weekend. He might also reach 20 victories in the last 21 rounds of the world championship. This is an undisputed level of dominance, even amidst the current situation and instability within Milton Keynes.
Further back, Ferrari is starting to progress under Vasseur’s management. Its base has proven stable in the first rounds while awaiting the first seasonal updates, which are expected soon.
There is a good margin between Maranello and their pursuers.
Still, many things can change over the course of the season. Therefore, on a track similar to Jeddah, the SF-24 will again have to demonstrate that it is second-fastest.
McLaren will have to deal with the DRS’s efficiency problems, especially in the race. Meanwhile, Mercedes sees its ghosts of 2022 with insignificant correlation problems and the return of aerodynamic bouncing.
Aston Martin will try to leverage its performance in the flying lap, once again taking advantage of non-abrasive asphalt, and try to limit losses between Qualifying and the Race.
Australian GP: There are many similarities with Jeddah in Melbourne
Melbourne resembles Jeddah in several aspects. It has very few low-speed corners and multiple DRS zones. The asphalt is also not very abrasive.
After two weeks of studying the data, the packing order could change. Not only at the front but also in the very close fight for the top positions behind the “Top 5”.
Also of note is that the Albert Park circuit has shorter straights than Jeddah. The average maximum speed is several km/h lower.
Still, the minimum cornering speed is also slightly lower, making the average speed along the lap around 4 km/h lower than that seen two weeks ago. The circuit is front-limited in nature, but there is no shortage of important traction areas.
Sectors 1 and 3 are rather technical, especially the last corners of the track. In certain corners, medium- and low-speed grip is very important.
In the middle sector, DRS activation will be essential – especially in qualifying. There are four activation zones in Melbourne, which is an important advantage for teams that are efficient in this sense. Here, the wing introduced by McLaren in Jeddah could cost the Woking team a lot of time on the straight.
This may force engineers to choose a more unloaded set-up, just like Ferrari did in Jeddah. Finding this balance will be crucial to compete with Red Bull in qualifying and race.
Last year’s race was characterised by management, with drivers struggling to overtake. Alonso spent his entire second stint behind Lewis Hamilton and failed to even attempt a move on the W14.
As such, qualifying performance will be crucial. The most important phase of Qualifying could be before the lap itself. There could be a possible double warm-up lap to bring the tyres to the window.
Of course, it also will be essential to avoid taking out too much life from the tyres. Last year, Max Verstappen won a large share of the Pole Position in turn one. The RB19’s impressive warm-up was critical in this respect. This year, with different compounds, it will be easier to get into the window, but difficulties cannot be ruled out.
In 2023, these specific conditions helped Mercedes in the final stage on Saturday. After two disappointing weekends, the W15 will be a fascinating machine to observe.
Red Bull starts as the absolute favourite for the Australian GP, looking for a third consecutive 1-2. It was back in 2019 that Mercedes achieved this feat on five straight occasions.
Ferrari, meanwhile, aims for a podium with at least one of its drivers.
Maranello hopes to apply some pressure on Sergio Perez, though the SF-24 will receive no updates, as Charles Leclerc revealed in Jeddah.
It will be essential for the engineers to find an aerodynamic compromise that does not waste too much time on the straights, especially with open DRS.
Further back, McLaren and Mercedes must contend with a circuit that is not ideal for their respective cars.
McLaren will have to manage ineffective DRS problems and the generally poor aerodynamic efficiency of the MCL38. Mercedes, meanwhile, will be wary of Albert Park’s high-speed sections.
The lack of correlation between simulations and reality is not a secret. Still, it is worrying because all the seasonal updates were calibrated based on what the data said in winter.
In Australia, Toto Wolff’s men will do some track tests, which is not a good sign after just two appointments.
Australian GP: Cold weekend forecast – First updates expected
After choosing the hardest range for Bahrain and the middle one for Jeddah, Pirelli will bring the softest compounds available for the Australian weekend.
The only slightly abrasive asphalt in Albert Park, combined with the low temperatures expected this weekend, have convinced Pirelli to go one step softer than their 2023 selection.
We will find out how the cars adapt to softer tyres, in particular the Ferrari and Mercedes, which showed some progress on the C4 in Jeddah.
The absence of many important braking areas will be a challenge both from the point of view of the tyres and with regard to the management of the hybrid, an aspect that will also count a lot in the race.
The first 2024 upgrades for many teams are expected at the Australian GP. They will mostly be small parts rather than large packages, which should debut between April and May.
Therefore, it will be more of a weekend of confirming the pecking order – rather than a dramatic shakeup.
Among the teams that will bring the first seasonal updates are McLaren (which will only introduce ‘minor updates’ ) and Stake Sauber; Alessandro Alunni Bravi said:
“We want to improve our performance on the flying lap and start from better grid positions – the updates we will bring to Australia are aimed at improving this aspect.”
Meanwhile, the traditional weekend format returns, with Free Practice on Friday and the Race on Sunday, after the first two events brought forward for the month of Ramadan.
