In the span of a few weeks, the picture at Ferrari has become increasingly bleak. The SF-24 is failing to meet expectations, with the Spanish GP upgrades creating unwanted porpoising and aerodynamic instability. Fred Vasseur must ensure the Maranello-based team avoids falling into the trap that Aston Martin fell victim to.
Over the last eighteen months, Ferrari’s development has been overwhelmingly positive. After starting the 2023 season with a series of fundamental issues, Enrico Cardile and his technical department turned things around.
Steady progress was made throughout the year, allowing the Italian squad to start this year with a strong foundation. This platform helped the SF-24 claim two victories, the first in Australia and the second in Monaco.
After a disappointing weekend in Canada, Ferrari accelerated their upgrades (initially intended for Silverstone) and brought them to Spain. The intention was to unlock a few tenths per lap and respond to the progress being made at McLaren and Mercedes.
Upgrades push Ferrari backwards
However, these upgrades have only derailed the team’s progress. The SF-24 now suffers from bouncing, an issue most teams sorted out twelve months ago.
Perhaps more concerningly, Ferrari finds themselves playing an unwinnable balancing act with set-up. Improvements to high-speed performance compromise low-speed cornering, whilst the return of bouncing forces the team to sacrifice performance for stability.
After testing different specifications in Free Practice, Ferrari returned to their Imola-spec car on Saturday. Carlos Sainz admitted that the SF-24’s previous specification is not necessarily faster but provides more consistency.
Despite all this, their current speed – or lack thereof – is not the main issue. Instead, the concern is about their trajectory for the remainder of 2024.
As we’ve seen with Aston Martin, it is easy to follow the wrong development path with these modern cars. If the wind tunnel data does not correlate with the reality on track, teams can dig themselves into a hole that is difficult to escape from.
Ferrari’s upgrades scheduled for later in the year will have to be reassessed. Until their existing problems are resolved, bringing new components would be nothing more than a gamble. At the highest level of F1, operating on guesswork is not sustainable.
To make things worse for Ferrari, their rivals are on the rise. Mercedes are going from strength to strength, while McLaren are fast regardless of conditions or track layout.
Even Aston Martin can be cautiously optimistic about their learnings. The AMR24 has been far more competitive in Silverstone, with Mike Krack’s personnel bringing a different combination of specifications.
The stakes continue to rise in the F1 development race. Ferrari must ensure that they do not return to old habits and miss out.
