Mercedes were not especially optimistic heading into this weekend. The W15 is proving just as complicated and – in relative terms – perhaps less competitive than its predecessor. However, Lewis Hamilton put together a brilliant lap in SQ3 to finish the Friday shootout in P2. This puts the Silver Arrows firmly in the mix tomorrow, especially with Max Verstappen’s somewhat underwhelming qualifying. Looking ahead to Saturday’s Sprint Race, there are concerns about the W15’s performance.
Although running in Shanghai has been limited, Sprint Qualifying provided indications about the pecking order. Both Mercedes struggled in SQ1 and SQ2, which were both in dry conditions. George Russell was eliminated in the second elimination round, failing to put together an adequate time.
Generally speaking, the biggest issue facing Mercedes concerns its operating window. The W15 is easily impacted by external variables, meaning it cannot be relied upon to perform consistently. This weakness is why the German constructor is barely clinging onto P4 in the Championship.
After his brilliant exploits in wet conditions, Lewis Hamilton outlined the difficulties that lie ahead:
“The conditions were very tricky out there. As you can see, there was not a lot of grip out there for anyone. As soon as I saw the rain coming though, I was getting very excited. Our pace in the dry didn’t look quite quick enough to challenge at the very front, so the wet weather gave us more of an opportunity. That’s when it all came alive. We will have to wait and see what the conditions are tomorrow. We have a lot of fast cars starting behind us, but we will see what we can do to keep them behind us.”
Andrew Shovlin, Trackside Engineering Director, made similar comments:
“Our pace in the dry wasn’t spectacular, but with Lewis, we will be looking to keep those faster cars behind us in tomorrow’s Sprint. George should be able to make some forward progress from his starting position, and hopefully, he can fight his way into the points.
“The on-track running in the Sprint will also provide us with further knowledge that we can utilise to make further adjustments to the W15 ahead of qualifying.”
Hamilton’s 2024 season has not started in excellent fashion, only managing 9 points from four rounds. In this sense, the Chinese GP weekend is an opportunity for the 7-time Champion to secure some strong results. For Hamilton, more wet conditions are likely his best chance of finishing near the front.
Dry conditions will force Mercedes on the defensive, especially in comparison to Red Bull and Ferrari. Still, it will be intriguing to observe if the W15 can hold its own against Aston Martin and McLaren. With Lando Norris and Fernando Alonso starting 1st and 3rd tomorrow, the Sprint Race in China will be an excellent study.
Toto Wolff argued that Mercedes’ results in the Japanese GP disguised the team’s progress in terms of understanding the W15. The next 48 hours will prove if this was the case.
